欧易币安web3研报

欧易币安web3研报

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2025 Web3 Airdrop Research: How to Conduct Efficiently

#币安合约怎么玩#火币邀请返佣计划#比特币减半介绍#币安注册#Gate市价单和限价单20
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The document discusses a practical methodology for airdrop investment research, focusing on four key dimensions for project selection: 1. **Timing Strategy**: Emphasizes the importance of early participation in projects, as the first 30% of a project's lifecycle can determine 80% of its potential returns. It suggests establishing a warning system to avoid missing early investment opportunities. 2. **Capital Gene Testing**: Introduces a dual-factor evaluation model that includes institutional backing and ecosystem value. Projects backed by leading capital firms have a significantly higher chance of being listed on major exchanges. 3. **Trend Beta Strategy**: Highlights the need for dynamic adjustments based on market trends, predicting that emerging sectors like content mining will reshape economic models in the coming years. 4. **Cost Risk Control**: Proposes a four-dimensional evaluation matrix to optimize the risk-return ratio, advising caution with high-APY staking projects and social tasks that rely heavily on referrals. The document also notes a decline in airdrop yield and the number of practitioners, suggesting a shift towards exchange-based airdrops and KOL content mining as new pathways for monetization. It advocates for a dynamic research framework that is updated monthly to track project viability and emerging opportunities.

Airdrop Research and Practical Methodology: Four Dimensions for Precise Project Selection#

Core Concept Analysis#

Investment research is essentially a decision-making system for optimizing resource allocation, which aims to maximize returns through project selection strategies within limited time and energy. As the industry enters a stage of specialized competition, blindly following trends is no longer adaptable to market changes, especially in the era of content mining, where establishing a scientific evaluation system is even more necessary.

1. Timing Game (Early Bonus Capture)#

Core Logic: The first 30% of a project's lifecycle determines 80% of the profit potential

  • Airdrop snapshot rules have a time-weighted attribute, where early participants' address weights are generally higher than those of later followers
  • It is recommended to establish a project early warning system, and strategically abandon projects that miss the seed phase participation window

Lessons Learned Case Library#

  • STRK Network: Missed the basic reward pool due to entering 7 days late
  • ZKBridge: Involvement after the Odyssey event led to missing NFT credentials
  • Initia: By the time of second-phase entry, the ecological niche had been monopolized by professional studios

2. Capital Gene Testing (Market Consensus Decoding)#

Dual-Factor Evaluation Model:

  1. Institutional Endorsement Index

    • Leading capital (a16z/Binance Labs, etc.) increases the probability of projects launching on top exchanges by 47%
    • Case: Binance investment portfolio projects have an 82% probability of launching on the main site

  2. Ecological Niche Value Coefficient

    • Airdrop premium rates for core components of public chains (DEX/lending protocols) exceed the industry average by 300%
    • Benchmark Cases: Airdrop market performance of DEXs like Jupiter (Solana) and Walrus (Sui)

3. Track Beta Strategy (Trend Bonus Capture)#

Dynamic Adjustment Mechanism:

  • The capital accumulation effect in mainstream narrative tracks is significant (2023-L2 expansion, 2024-DEX innovation)
  • Emerging track warning: Content mining (SocialFi) in 2025 will reconstruct the KOL economic model
  • Data Insight: Project community activity following market hotspots increases by 5-8 times

4. Cost Risk Control System (Input-Output Ratio Optimization)#

Four-Dimensional Evaluation Matrix:

  1. Time Cost: Average daily time spent per project ≤ 45 minutes
  2. Financial Risk: Zero lock-up > light staking > heavy staking
  3. Technical Threshold: Supports batch operations > manual single account
  4. Safety Margin: Smart contract audit pass rate > 90%

Pitfall Avoidance Guide:

  • Carefully select high APY staking projects (historical backtesting shows that projects with annualized returns over 200% have a failure rate of 78%)
  • Beware of social viral tasks (projects where invitation rewards account for over 50% have a survival rate of less than 20%)

Industry Trend Judgment#

The median airdrop return rate in 2024 has dropped to 12%, with the number of practitioners decreasing by 40% month-on-month. Existing players show two major transformation directions:

  1. Exchange clear airdrops (certainty return strategy)
  2. KOL content mining (new path for traffic monetization)

Survival Rule: Establish a dynamic investment research framework, updated monthly:

  • Project elimination list (TVL declining for three consecutive weeks)
  • New track opportunity map (technical breakthroughs + capital inflow)
  • Studio trend monitoring (batch address behavior analysis)

In-Depth Reading#

【Practical Guide: Binance Megadrop Zero-Cost Arbitrage Strategy】
【Lessons from Pain: Survival Rules in the Crypto World from Millions to Debt Rebirth】

Industry Hot Word Tracking#

Bitcoin OTC Trading ‖ Depin Node Network ‖ Taker Liquidity Mining
Grass Airdrop Collection ‖ Exchange Compliance Registration ‖ Web3 Batch Operation Solutions
DeFi Staking Risk Control ‖ NFT Digital Identity ‖ Contract Leverage Hedging Strategy

Original Methodology System @ Northern Frontier Investment Research Laboratory
Data Support: BTC8848 Industry Database

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